Driving Mechanisms of Imbalance in Key Ecosystem Services in Dust Storm-prone Areas: A Case Study of the Hotan Oasis

The balance between supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) is the cornerstone for maintaining regional socio-ecological system stability and preventing land degradation. However, current research on the driving mechanisms of ESs mostly focuses on the supply side, and the driving mechanisms of supply-demand balance have not been sufficiently emphasised. Taking the Hotan Oasis as the research region, we measured the ecosystem services supply-demand ratios (ESDR) of four key services, including sand fixation (SF), water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), and food production (FP) in the Hotan Oasis from 2005 to 2020. We utilised the optimal parameter-based geographic detector (OPGD) model to explore the driving mechanisms for the four ESDRs. The results show that: (1) the supply and demand of ESs showed significant spatial and temporal variations; SF and SR were generally in deficit, with SF deficit areas mainly distributed in the northern desert zone and SR deficit concentrated in the southern mountainous areas. WY and FP had quantitative surpluses, but spatial mismatches were prominent; (2) Natural and human activities jointly drove the supply and demand of ESs. Animal husbandry had a higher driving effect on SF, and its interaction with natural factors was significant; Natural factors had the strongest driving effect on ESDRs in WY and SR; the planting industry had the strongest driving effect on FP, and its interaction with population factors was prominent. (3) Aiming at the spatial heterogeneity of the supply and demand of ESs and the driving mechanism, this study proposed a zonal management framework of “source sand control - pathway blocking - system synergy”.