Predict new cases of the Coronavirus 19; in Michigan, U.S.A. or other countries using Crow-AMSAA Method (Preprint)
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Abstract
Statistical predictions are useful to predict events based on statistical models. The data is useful to determine outcomes based on inputs and calculations. The Crow-AMSAA method will be explored to predict new cases of Coronavirus 19 (COVID19). This method is currently used within engineering reliability design to predict failures and evaluate the reliability growth. The author intents to use this model to predict the COVID19 cases by using daily reported data from Michigan, New York City, U.S.A and other countries. The piece wise Crow-AMSAA (CA) model fits the data very well for the infected cases and deaths at different phases during the start of the COVID19 outbreak. The slope β of the Crow-AMSAA line indicates the speed of the transmission or death rate. The traditional epidemiological model is based on the exponential distribution, but the Crow-AMSAA is the Non Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) which can be used to modeling the complex problem like COVID19, especially when the various mitigation strategies such as social distance, isolation and locking down were implemented by the government at different places.
OBJECTIVE
This paper is to use piece wise Crow-AMSAA method to fit the COVID19 confirmed cases in Michigan, New York City, U.S.A and other countries.
METHODS
piece wise Crow-AMSAA method to fit the COVID19 confirmed cases
RESULTS
From the Crow-AMSAA analysis above, at the beginning of the COVID 19, the infectious cases did not follow the Crow-AMSAA prediction line, but during the outbreak start, the confirmed cases does follow the CA line, the slope β value indicates the pace of the transmission rate or death rate in each case. The piece wise Crow-AMSAA describes the different phases of spreading. This indicates the speed of the transmission rate could change according to the government interference, social distance order or other factors. Comparing the piece wise CA β slopes (β: 1.683-- 0.834--0.092) in China and in U.S.A (β:5.138--10.48--5.259), the speed of infectious rate in U.S.A is much higher than the infectious rate in China. From the piece wise CA plots and summary table 1 of the CA slope βs, the COVID19 spreading has the different behavior at different places and countries where the government implemented the different policy to slow down the spreading.
CONCLUSIONS
From the analysis of data and conclusions from confirmed cases and deaths of COVID 19 in Michigan, New York city, U.S.A, China and other countries, the piece wise Crow-AMSAA method can be used to modeling the spreading of COVID19.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.03.20052845: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The limitation of this piece wise Crow-AMSAA method is that the manual separation of the data has to be applied to find out the different infection phase at different time period. The good fitting of the data is depending on …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.03.20052845: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The limitation of this piece wise Crow-AMSAA method is that the manual separation of the data has to be applied to find out the different infection phase at different time period. The good fitting of the data is depending on the good data separation. Future work: More studies should be done in future for COVID19 for the distribution of demographical, zone and climate conditions by using the piece wise CA models. Also the effectiveness of the government policy which preventing the spreading of this disease need be studied more to see how that affects the CA slope β.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.03.20052845: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources References and Notes: Notessuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
About SciScore
SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore is not a substitute for expert review. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.03.20052845: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources References and Notes: Notessuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
About SciScore
SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore is not a substitute for expert review. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers) in the manuscript, and detects sentences that appear to be missing RRIDs. SciScore also checks to make sure that rigor criteria are addressed by authors. It does this by detecting sentences that discuss criteria such as blinding or power analysis. SciScore does not guarantee that the rigor criteria that it detects are appropriate for the particular study. Instead it assists authors, editors, and reviewers by drawing attention to sections of the manuscript that contain or should contain various rigor criteria and key resources. For details on the results shown here, please follow this link.
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