Risk Factors of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Global Epidemiological Study

  1. William Alphonse Barletta

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Abstract

Since the first recognition of the pandemic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and before substantial case fatality data were available worldwide, public health agencies warned the public about the increased dangers of SARS-CoV-2 to persons with a variety of underlying physical conditions, many of which are more commonly found in persons over 50 years of age or in certain ethnic groups.

Objective

To investigate the statistical rather than the physiological basis in support of the abovementioned warnings, this study examines correlations globally on a nation-by-nation basis between the statistical data concerning COVID-19 fatalities and the statistics of potential comorbidities that may influence the severity of infection.

Methods

This study considers the statistics describing the populations of the 99 countries with the greatest numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections at the time of the data cutoff. As national compilations of direct measures of immune system strength are not publicly available, the frequency of fatalities in those countries due to a variety of serious diseases is used as a proxy for the susceptibility of those populations to those same diseases.

Results

The analysis produces plots and calculations of correlations and cross-correlations of COVID-19 case fatality rates and the risks of other potential cofactors. It exposes some reasons that may underlie the degree to which advanced age increases the risk of mortality of infection with SARS-CoV-2. In contrast with the strong influences of comorbidities on the seriousness of consequences of influenzas and their associated pneumonias, the correlations of the same set of risk factors with SARS-CoV-2 infection are considerably weaker. The general characteristics of the observed correlations strengthened through 3 cycles of analysis, starting in September 2020. The strongest correlations were with chronic kidney disease and coronary disease (approximately 0.28 and 0.20, respectively).

Conclusions

This study confirms early clinical observations that infection with SARS-CoV-2 presents an increased risk to persons over the age of 65 years. It does not support the suggestions presented by government agencies early in the pandemic that the risks are much greater for persons with certain common potential comorbidities.

Article activity feed

  1. Version published to 10.2196/28843
  2. Version published to 10.2196/preprints.28843
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.30.20204990v3 on medRxiv
  4. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.30.20204990: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We found bar graphs of continuous data. We recommend replacing bar graphs with more informative graphics, as many different datasets can lead to the same bar graph. The actual data may suggest different conclusions from the summary statistics. For more information, please see Weissgerber et al (2015).

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  5. Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.30.20204990v2 on medRxiv
  6. Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.30.20204990v1 on medRxiv