First‑Day Glycemic Exposure and 28‑Day Mortality in the ICU: A Multicohort Study

Importance : Early glycemic exposure in the ICU is common and clinically modifiable, yet bedside assessment often relies on single glucose values rather than exposure‑aware metrics. Interpretable, first-day prediction may support individualized glycemic targets and early intervention. Objective : To examine the association between first‑day time‑weighted average glucose (TWAG) and 28‑day mortality, and to evaluate GlucoSurvAI, an interpretable ensemble model for first-day risk stratification. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study using electornic health records from 13 U.S. hospitals. Among 18,868 adult ICU encounters, 8,048 patients from 7 U.S. hospitals met inclusion criteria (≥1 glucose value and hospital length of stay ≥24 hours). Exposures: First‑day glycemic exposure summarized as TWAG, categorized as <100 , 100–139 (reference) , 140–179, and ≥180 mg/dL. Prespecified covariates included diabetes/prediabetes, first-day insulin and glucose, corticosteroids, vasopressors, shock, cancer, glucose‑monitoring intensity, and clinical site. Main Outcome and Measures: Primary outcome: 28‑day all‑cause mortality. Associations were estimated with multivariable Cox models (adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs], 95% CIs). GlucoSurvAI performance was assessed using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) and Brier score; SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided 28‑day interpretability. Results: Of 8,048 patients, most were euglycemic (70–180 mg/dL) on day 1, although hyperglycemic excursions were frequent. Higher TWAG was associated with higher 28‑day mortality: 140–179 mg/dL aHR 1.42 (95% CI, 1.25–1.62) ; ≥180 mg/dL aHR 1.41 (95% CI, 1.17–1.69). TWAG <100 mg/dL showed a nonsignificant trend toward higher survival. GlucoSurvAI achieved AUROC 0.967 (±0.008) with a low Brier score (~0.026). Adjusted SHAP analyses paralleled Cox results, identifying 100–139 mg/dLas the exposure range associated with decreased mortality, with risk increasing ≥140 mg/dL. First-day vasopressorsand corticosteroids were also associated with higher mortality; insulinexposure marked higher risk after adjustment. Conclusions and Relevance: During the first ICU day, exposure‑aware TWAG assessment identified a practical upper boundary near 140 mg/dL associated with higher 28‑day mortality. An interpretable ensemble integrating TWAG, treatments, and physiology provided accurate first-day risk estimates, supporting risk‑informed, individualized glycemic targets and earlier intervention in high‑risk ICU patients.