Ageing Agriculture Vulnerability and Productivity Risk in ASEAN: Evidence from a Country-Level Index and Fixed-Effects Analysis, 2010–2024
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This study examines ageing agriculture vulnerability in ASEAN by developing a country-level Ageing Agriculture Vulnerability Index (AAVI) and linking it with agricultural productivity outcomes. Drawing on secondary panel data for ten ASEAN countries during 2010–2024, compiled primarily from the World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI) and relevant international agricultural statistics, the index integrates ten indicators across five dimensions: demographic ageing, agricultural labour dependence, productivity risk, adaptive capacity, and food-system exposure. The results show substantial cross-country differences. Myanmar recorded the highest mean AAVI score during 2010–2024 (0.637), followed by Thailand (0.610), Cambodia (0.594), and Lao PDR (0.588), while Brunei Darussalam showed the lowest mean AAVI score (0.297). In the 2022 benchmark ranking, Myanmar ranked first (0.623) and Thailand second (0.597). Fixed-effects estimates indicate that agricultural employment share is negatively associated with agricultural value added per worker (β = -0.0273, p < .001), whereas population ageing alone shows only marginal evidence (β = 0.0462, p = .051). Moderation analysis further suggests that GDP per capita buffers ageing-related labour-productivity pressure (β = 0.0236, p < .01). Overall, ageing agriculture vulnerability in ASEAN is not simply a demographic outcome. It is a structural condition shaped by the interaction between ageing, labour-intensive agriculture, rural dependence, productivity constraints, and adaptive capacity. The findings offer policy implications for productivity upgrading, rural transformation, and food-system resilience.
