Spatiotemporal analysis of spatial heterogeneity and mechanism reweighting in housing vacancy regimes after COVID-19

Empirical studies often treat housing vacancy as a static correlate of local conditions, underemphasizing dynamic mechanisms that vary across space and shift under shocks. We reframe vacancy as a regime-structured process in which core–periphery hierarchies shape both local effects and cross-boundary spillovers. Focusing on the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, we ask whether the COVID-19 period disrupted the core–periphery regime structure or instead reweighted pre-existing mechanisms. Using municipality-level data from Japan’s Housing and Land Survey (HLS) for 290 municipalities in 2018 and 2023, we combine exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) with cross-sectional Spatial Durbin Models and a two-period panel SDM with municipality and year fixed effects. \(\:Post\times\:X\) and \(\:Post\times\:WX\) interactions identify post-period parameter shifts and decompose direct and spillover effects, separating within-municipality change from time-invariant heterogeneity. Results reveal persistent spatial clustering and selectively reweighted core–periphery, regime-specific mechanisms, with demographic pressure dominating the periphery and economic centrality coupled with asset-recycling capacity governing the core, contradicting a generalized “urban exodus” narrative. Social facilities exhibit a regime-contingent pattern: they operate as vacancy buffers in the periphery, whereas in the core their association shifts toward spillover-linked vacancy propagation. Meanwhile, the buffering role of pre-1981 housing stock weakens in 2023 relative to 2018, consistent with intensified quality-based sorting. Post-period shifts are largely spillover-driven, underscoring cross-boundary externalities. Overall, COVID-19 did not erase the regime hierarchy but induced asymmetric parameter reweighting. The study contributes a transferable, spillover-aware framework for diagnosing vacancy change and designing regime-targeted governance in aging and shrinking metropolises.