Estimating Multivitamin and Mineral Supplement Use and Associated Nutrient Intake in Saudi Arabia: A Probabilistic Modeling Study

Background Multivitamin and mineral supplements (MVMs) are widely consumed globally, yet national-level data on their use and associated nutrient intake in Saudi Arabia remain scarce. Characterizing exposure and intake is essential for regulatory assessment and public health planning. Methods A probabilistic model was developed to estimate exposure to MVMs and quantify nutrient intake among adults in Saudi Arabia. The model integrated three probability distributions representing overall supplement use, MVM use and daily use, derived from population-based data, and combined them with nutrient concentration distributions obtained from 24 MVM products available in the Saudi market. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to account for variability and uncertainty. Results The median probability of exposure was 0.040 (95% CI: 0.020–0.060) for males and 0.070 (95% CI: 0.051–0.083) for females. Estimated nutrient intakes contributed modestly to daily values (DV), with Vitamin B12 showing the highest coverage (128.7% DV for males and 225.8% DV for females at the 50th percentile). All other nutrients remained below their respective upper levels (UL). Model validation using per capita expenditure demonstrated reasonable alignment with observed market data. Conclusions The proposed probabilistic model provides a preliminary tool for estimating supplement-related nutrient exposure in the absence of national consumption surveys. The findings support its use in regulatory decision-making and highlight the need for further integration with food-based intake data.