Investigation of Shoreline Change Rates and Prediction of Future Shoreline Position Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (Case Study: Coasts from Jazireh Shomali to Bandar Rig, Bushehr Province, Iran)

The coastal zone is one of the most dynamic and sensitive geographical environments, constantly shaped by the combined effects of natural processes and human activities, which drive pronounced spatial and temporal variability. Monitoring and quantifying shoreline change are therefore essential for sustainable coastal management, hazard mitigation, infrastructure protection, and development planning. In this study, shoreline dynamics along the coastal stretch from Jazireh Shomali to Bandar Rig, in Bushehr Province, southern Iran, were analysed over a 30-year period (1993–2023) using multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery (TM, ETM+, and OLI) within a remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) framework. The images were subjected to radiometric and geometric corrections and processed using the Tasseled Cap transformation to accurately delineate shoreline positions. Shoreline change rates were then quantified with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) using Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), End Point Rate (EPR), and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) indices. The results reveal that coastal erosion is the predominant trend across large portions of the study area, with maximum shoreline retreat of approximately 1216 m, whereas only limited segments exhibit substantial accretion, with shoreline advance reaching up to 1528 m. Future shoreline evolution was simulated using a Kalman filter–based forecasting model, indicating that erosional trends are likely to persist over the next 10–20 years, particularly along the central and southeastern coastal sectors. Without appropriate management interventions, these areas may experience further shoreline retreat and increased exposure of coastal infrastructure to marine hazards. Overall, the findings provide a robust scientific basis for coastal risk assessment, shoreline protection planning, the design of coastal engineering structures, and evidence-based policymaking aimed at sustainable development along the Bushehr Province shoreline.