A Reliability-Aware Framework for Campaign-Scale Lunar Construction Logistics with Space-Elevator Transshipment

Large-scale lunar construction will require sustained Earth--Moon logistics, yet the campaign-scale competitiveness of alternative transport architectures remains unclear when throughput limits, commissioning delay, finite buffering, operational interruptions, and schedule pressure are considered jointly. We develop a reliability-aware framework for comparing three architectures: direct rocket delivery, two-stage space-elevator-assisted transshipment, and hybrid strategies that combine both pathways. Space-elevator reliability is represented by a continuous-time Markov chain and introduced into the planning layer through a steady-state effective-throughput multiplier. Architecture performance is evaluated by multi-objective optimization over construction completion time, a normalized cost index, and an Earth-launch-intensity proxy, subject to shared capacity, buffering, commissioning, and post-construction sustainment constraints. Under the adopted stress-test benchmark, direct rocket delivery achieves the minimum feasible build horizon (\(\sim 8.01\) years), whereas the purely space-elevator-assisted architecture requires \(\sim 235.91\) years. At the same fast-build benchmark, the hybrid solution remains effectively rocket-dominant. Multiple campaign-scale diagnostics further indicate that this fast-build neighborhood is governed primarily by rocket-side rather than elevator-side limitations, whereas more substantial space-elevator participation emerges only when schedule pressure is relaxed and Earth-launch burden is weighted more strongly. These results show that lunar logistics architecture selection is regime-dependent rather than universally ordered, and clarify when space-elevator-assisted transport remains secondary and when it becomes more relevant along the trade-off set.