Valuing ecosystembased adaptation: Evidence from smallholder willingness to pay for agroforestry in Rwanda

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) has emerged as a cost-effective and sustainable strategy for enhancing climate resilience in smallholder agricultural systems. Yet, its adoption remains constrained by limited evidence on farmers’ economic preferences and ability to pay. This study ascertains smallholder farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for agroforestry tree seedlings as an EbA practice in Nyamasheke (Western Rwanda) and Kirehe (Eastern Rwanda), two districts facing contrasting climate risks. Using survey data from 418 households and a double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation, we estimate WTP distributions, price elasticities, adoption probabilities, and revenue-maximizing prices. Results reveal a strong inverse relationship between seedling price and adoption probability in both districts, consistent with demand theory for long-term investment goods under liquidity constraints. Median WTP in both locations lies in the low to mid-teens (RWF), indicating substantial baseline demand but binding cash constraints. However, price responsiveness differs: farmers in Nyamasheke exhibit significantly higher price sensitivity, while the demand in Kirehe is comparatively less elastic. Optimal pricing analysis shows adoption-maximizing prices of 10 to 30 RWF in Nyamasheke and 30 to 80 RWF in Kirehe, while simulated revenue-maximizing prices are approximately 41.6 RWF and 86 RWF, respectively, though associated acceptance rates remain below 30%. Socio-economic analysis indicates that farmer age positively influences acceptance, while sex, income, and education have weak or insignificant effects. To enhance real-world uptake, we outline district-specific implementation pathways and propose a follow-up knowledge implementation and impact-monitoring plan to track adoption, cost-recovery, household benefits, and practitioner satisfaction. This actionable evidence can inform agroforestry pricing, climate-finance design, and national adaptation planning in Rwanda and similar smallholder contexts.