An AI-Driven Precision Irrigation Framework for Enhanced Water Efficiency in Iraqi Agriculture

The global issue of water scarcity and climate change requires highly efficient and intelligent irrigation systems that are capable of optimizing water consumption with high crop productivity. The paper aims to provide a holistic machine learning framework for crop water stress prediction and efficient irrigation scheduling using multi-parametric agronomic data. The paper analyzes 55,450 soybean data with 13 physiological and biochemical parameters to implement and compare six regression models for predicting the water stress index. After eliminating tautology by removing the direct water content parameter from the prediction model, LightGBM and XGBoost ensemble tree models achieved near-perfect accuracy for predicting crop water stress using regular plant parameters alone, with R² = 1.0 and RMSE = 1.57×10⁻⁸ to 5.04×10⁻⁵. The Random Forest classifier, which was implemented without any direct stress indicators, achieved perfect discrimination between low, moderate, and high stress classes with precision/recall equal to 1.0, and 5-fold cross-validation and noise tests confirmed its robustness. SHAP analysis of the results showed protein percentage (PPE) and seed yield per unit area (SYUA) to be key drivers of water stress, providing valuable insights for precision agriculture. The model for determining irrigation requirements based on crop evapotranspiration and stress level achieved R² = 1.0 with zero error, making it possible to translate trait values directly into irrigation requirements. The framework presented in this paper brings together machine learning and agronomic knowledge to provide real-time data-driven solutions for irrigation systems, which have 30–50% water savings potential while maintaining healthy crops. It lays the ground for the development of AI-assisted irrigation systems that are applicable to different crops and climatic conditions, particularly in water-scarce countries such as Iraq.