Risk Allocation and Private Sector Participation in Saudi Automotive Mega-Projects

This study examined whether perceived fairness of risk allocation helps explain private-sector participation intention in public–private partnership projects more effectively than the perceived salience of major risk categories. Using a quantitative cross-sectional survey design, the study analyzed 250 valid responses from practitioners involved in Saudi automotive mega-projects, including EPC contractors, suppliers, consultants, and investors. The questionnaire measured perceived fairness of risk allocation, participation intention, and five major risk-category items, and the scales showed strong internal consistency. The results indicate that perceived fairness was evaluated positively and significantly above the neutral midpoint. More importantly, perceived fairness showed a strong positive association with participation intention and explained a substantial proportion of its variance. By contrast, although all risk categories were rated as important, their explanatory power was comparatively modest when entered simultaneously in the regression model, and no individual risk category emerged as a statistically significant predictor. These findings suggest that private-sector willingness to participate may depend less on broad recognition of project risks than on whether the allocation of those risks is perceived as fair, proportionate, and credible. The study therefore highlights perceived fairness as a central governance-related factor in strengthening PPP project attractiveness and market willingness to engage.