Geospatial Modelling and Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Groundwater Recharge Potential in a Climate-Stressed Coastal Basin of Western India

Groundwater depletion in coastal regions has intensified due to increasing anthropogenic pressures, particularly from ecotourism and climate-induced variability. The Mochemad River Basin, situated along the western coast of Maharashtra, India, is experiencing critical groundwater stress, including severe seawater intrusion. Despite receiving over 3500 mm of annual rainfall, inadequate recharge infrastructure has limited the sustainable replenishment of aquifers. This study employs a geospatial modelling approach integrated with the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) to delineate Artificial Groundwater Recharge Zones (AGRZ) in this climate-vulnerable coastal basin. Seven thematic layers—lithology, geomorphology, land use/land cover, slope, drainage density, lineament density, and rainfall—were processed and weighted using AHP to reflect their relative influence on recharge potential. A weighted overlay analysis within a GIS environment produced a recharge suitability map categorizing the basin into four zones: unsuitable (14.24%), moderately suitable (19.25%), highly suitable (55.94%), and very highly suitable (10.56%). Model validation using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.89, indicating strong predictive performance. The study’s novelty lies in the integration of high-resolution spatial datasets with AHP in a high-rainfall, climate-sensitive coastal context. Based on the identified zones, suitable site-specific recharge interventions such as check dams, infiltration tanks, Mati Bandaras, and Continuous Contour Trenches (CCTs) are recommended to enhance groundwater resilience and sustainable water resource management in the region.