Reshaping Urban Resilience: Can Climate-Resilient City Pilot Mitigate Urban Climate Risks? Evidence from Chinese Cities

Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change, enhancing urban resilience is vital for sustainable development. This study evaluates the impact of climate-resilient development on extreme climate risks by analyzing China's Climate-Resilient City Pilot (CRCP) program. Using a balanced panel dataset of 162 Chinese cities (2010–2023) and Double Machine Learning (DML), we find that systematic adaptation significantly reduces the City-level Physical Risk Index (CPRI). Mechanism analysis identifies three primary pathways: ecosystem regulation (improved air quality and ecological metrics), technology adoption (increased green and disaster-prevention patents), and infrastructure resilience (upgraded drainage and response systems). Heterogeneity analysis reveals that adaptation effectiveness is more pronounced in economically developed eastern regions, cities with diversified economies, and areas with higher climate awareness and fiscal capacity. These findings underscore the critical role of economic resources and governance in determining outcomes. This research contributes empirical evidence to urban adaptation literature, identifying context-specific pathways for success. China’s experience demonstrates how integrated strategies can simultaneously advance climate resilience and economic transformation, offering a scalable model for other developing economies and global efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).