Long-Term Habitat Dynamics in the Greater Kafue Ecosystem of Zambia Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Data (1984–2024)

The Greater Kafue Ecosystem (GKE) in central-western Zambia, comprising Kafue National Park and nine surrounding Game Management Areas (GMAs), covers approximately 66,000 km² and ranks among southern Africa’s largest conservation landscapes. Despite its ecological significance, long-term ecosystem-wide assessments of cumulative habitat transformation remain limited. This study employed multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1984–2024), processed in ArcGIS Pro and classified using Random Forest with object-based refinement, to quantify four decades of land-cover change. Classification performance was robust, with overall accuracies of 82–90% (κ = 0.73–0.86), macro-averaged F1-scores of 81.4–90.0%, and a 2024 overall accuracy confidence interval of ± 2.6% (95% CI, n = 600). Natural habitat declined from 98.31% (9.65 million ha) in 1984 to 83.96% (8.24 million ha) in 2024, representing a net loss of approximately 1.41 million ha. Agricultural expansion was the dominant driver, with cropland increasing from 0.86% to 14.53%, accounting for 83% of total conversion. Conversion rates accelerated from 10,209 ha yr⁻¹ (1984–1994) to 57,269 ha yr⁻¹ (2014–2024). Spatial patterns were highly heterogeneous: Kafue National Park retained 98.87%, compared with 84.08% across GMAs, with retention ranging from 96.62% (Lunga Luswishi) to 37.77% (Bilili). Habitat loss exhibited strong spatial structuring, with edge effects extending up to 10 km beyond park boundaries and a 14.4 percentage-point gradient associated with proximity to roads. These findings underscore the effectiveness of strict protection while identifying road-accessible buffer zones as priorities for spatially targeted conservation planning.