Macroeconomic and Structural Determinants of Sustainable Development Goal Achievement: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Despite two decades of economic expansion and development interventions, poverty reduction across Sub-Saharan Africa has remained uneven and highly persistent. Using a bias-corrected dynamic fixed-effects panel framework across ten structurally stratified Sub-Saharan African economies over the period 2001-2024, this analysis investigates the heterogeneous determinants of poverty reduction and evaluates the feasibility of achieving SDG Target 1.1 by 2030. The results reveal strong persistence in poverty dynamics, indicating that historical welfare conditions exert a substantial influence on contemporary poverty outcomes. Institutional quality emerges as a central determinant of poverty reduction in low-income economies, while conflict intensity worsens welfare outcomes and improvements in electricity access and educational attainment contribute to poverty reduction with varying magnitudes across income groups. Counterfactual projections to 2030 indicate that none of the sampled economies is currently on track to achieve SDG Target 1.1. These findings suggest that sustained poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa requires structural transformation centered on improved governance, conflict mitigation, and expanded investments in infrastructure and human capital. JEL Classification: I32 · O43 · C23 · H11 · Q54