Climate Tipping Revealed by Seesaws and Dominoes: Dynamical Systems Perspective

Climate tipping points are often described as critical thresholds beyond which small perturbations can trigger abrupt, self-amplifying, and potentially irreversible change. While this framing has been effective in communicating risk, it can obscure the distinct dynamical processes through which tipping unfolds across different time scales. In this study, we adopt a dynamical-systems perspective and define tipping as a process consisting of two related but distinct components: a bifurcation and a subsequent transition. We use the cubic energy balance model (EBM) as a minimal normal form to illustrate three essential features of tipping—abruptness, self-amplification, and hysteresis—through the interplay of constant forcing, linear feedbacks, and nonlinear saturation. For easy understanding, these processes are further elucidated by seesaws and dominoes. Based on these results, we offer a traceable, mechanism-based approach for interpreting observations and testing tipping behavior using realistic climate models.