Effects of the International Fund for Agricultural Development’s (IFAD) Agri-Hub Initiatives on Youth’s Employment Outcomes in Nigeria

This study examines the effects of the International Fund for Agricultural Development’s (IFAD) Agri-Hub Nigerian (IAN) project on youth employment status and income change in Nigeria. A multi-stage sampling procedure resulted in 320 beneficiaries and 541 matched non-beneficiaries across the Abuja, Imo, and Oyo hubs. A combination of Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and instrumental variable techniques was employed, generating 300 well-balanced matched pairs. Independent sample t-test, ANOVA, Binary logistic regression and incremental model building (multiple linear regression) were used to isolate the impact on employment status and income changes. Findings reveal higher employment rates among both entrepreneurship and employment track beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries. For employment status, beneficiaries (88.3% employed) were significantly influenced by participation intensity (OR = 1.022) and prior income (OR = 1.000), although the entrepreneurship track showed a decreased odds of being employed (OR = 0.050), while non-beneficiaries (38.7% employed) depended on years of agribusiness experience (OR = 3.122) and involvement in crop processing (OR = 2.396). The incremental model building results show that regarding income change and employment status positively predicted gains for both beneficiaries (β = 26,606.47) and non-beneficiaries (β = 16,968.62). Group membership was the strongest predictor of employment for beneficiaries (β = 68.275.96), whereas baseline income was for non-beneficiaries (β = 0.421). Track-level analysis shows higher income gains for entrepreneurship participants (₦156,825) than for those in the wage employment track (₦44,666). The IAN project significantly improved youth employment status, with higher participation rates increasing employment likelihood, and income gains primarily driven by group membership and programme support services.