Linking Drought Indices with Maize Productivity: A Comparative Analysis of SPI and DSI in Temperate Rainfed Agriculture

Maintaining agricultural productivity in the rainfed, temperate regions of Jammu & Kashmir requires an understanding of drought dynamics. This study investigates the spatial distribution and long-term trends of two important drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Dry Spell Index (DSI), as well as how they relate to cropped area and maize production between 1997 and 2024. Significant spatial diversity in DSI is revealed by the results. While Baramulla had the most interannual variability, Kupwara and Srinagar districts had the highest average drought severity. The intra-seasonal distribution of rainfall, which is essential to crop growth and development, is not adequately reflected by SPI, despite the fact that SPI trends primarily show near-normal to somewhat dry conditions. On the other hand, DSI provides more detailed information on times of crop stress by more accurately capturing the frequency and length of dry spells. Moderate drought stress (DSI, 8–12) produced the maximum productivity in maize yield analysis, indicating that mild water deficiencies may promote maize development by lowering the hazards of disease and excessive moisture. However, yield and cultivated area were drastically decreased by severe drought (DSI > 20), underscoring maize's vulnerability to severe moisture deficiencies. Overall rainfall quantity and distribution have improved, especially in Srinagar, according to temporal study, which revealed a positive SPI trend and dropping DSI across all districts. Overall, the study highlights how crucial it is to combine DSI and SPI for a thorough evaluation of agricultural drought. In order to increase resilience in the face of growing climate variability, these findings suggest the need for region-specific adaptation strategies, such as the creation of drought-tolerant maize varieties, better water management techniques, and improved early warning systems.