The humanitarian coverage plateau: sustaining survival while constraining capability development in the Rohingya refugee response, 2017-2024

Background Forced displacement has become one of the most pressing global public health challenges. Despite the scale and protracted nature of contemporary displacement, there remains limited longitudinal evidence on how international humanitarian systems sustain the responses for the protracted crises. The Rohingya refugee response in Cox’s Bazar exemplifies this systemic strain. As displacement has entered a protracted phase, international attention has waned, even as needs remain substantial. To address this gap, this study characterizes donor financing patterns for the Rohingya refugee crisis from 2017 to 2024. Methods We conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis of humanitarian financing for the Rohingya JRP from 2017 to 2024, using data from the OCHA FTS and UNHCR population estimates. We assessed (i) overall and sector-level financial coverage, (ii) donor participation dynamics (entries, exits, and stayers), and (iii) donor concentration using HHI, to identify system-level financing patterns and structural dynamics characteristic of protracted displacement setting. Results Overall financial coverage remained relatively stable across the study period. Meanwhile, sector-level coverage demonstrated marked heterogeneity across sectors and years. Food security and Nutrition sector showed comparatively high coverage, while other sectors including WASH, Shelter/Non-Food, Health, and Education were consistently under-covered or exhibited discontinuous episodic coverage. Donor concentration and donor participation dynamics both showed significant fluctuation over the study period. Conclusions The findings revealed relatively stable overall financial coverage masked persistent sectoral inequalities and structural vulnerability in donor ecosystem. We conceptualize this pattern as a humanitarian coverage plateau: a financing equilibrium that sustains basic survival but constrain investment needed for longer-term capability development and system strengthening. As protracted displacement becomes increasingly common, redesigning humanitarian financing framework that enable multi-year planning and reduce structural imbalances is critical to support durable wellbeing in refugee settings.