Analysis of Compliance Costs for Different Marine Fuels under the GFI Accounting Method: A Case Study of a 210,000-ton Bulk Carrier

With the implementation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Net-Zero Framework, the shipping industry faces new challenges in emission reduction. This study focuses on the two-tier greenhouse gas fuel intensity (GFI) target system of the IMO Net-Zero Framework and the compliance mechanisms of different marine fuels. By constructing a comprehensive assessment framework integrating GFI and fuel prices, we adopted a mixed-methods approach combining life cycle assessment (LCA), financial cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and case study validation to quantitatively analyze the compliance costs of traditional fossil fuels and green fuels. Taking a 210,000-ton bulk carrier as a case study, based on its fuel consumption data in 2024, the compliance costs of using different fuels are calculated and compared in detail. The results show that traditional fossil fuels will face increasing compliance costs under the IMO Net-Zero Framework, while green fuels, such as biomethanol, have significant emission reduction advantages. The price and life-cycle greenhouse gas emission intensity of green fuels directly affect their compliance costs. When the price of biomethanol (with a life-cycle greenhouse gas emission intensity of 33 gCO ₂ eq/MJ) is around USD 640 per ton, its comprehensive cost of use is comparable to that of traditional fossil fuels. This study provides important references for fuel selection and emission reduction strategies in the shipping industry under the Net-Zero Framework.