Tsunami hazard in the Anguilla Bank Archipelago, Lesser Antilles: historical data, fault characterization and numerical simulation

Population growth and urban concentration in low-elevation coastal zones increase the vulnerability of Caribbean communities to coastal hazards, including tsunamis. Although tsunamis are less frequent in the Caribbean than in the Pacific or Indian Oceans, historical records indicate that both regional and transoceanic events have affected the Lesser Antilles. Within this context, the Anguilla Bank Archipelago (Anguilla, Saint-Martin/Sint Maarten, and Saint-Barthélemy) is characterized by low-lying topography and high population densities, potentially enhancing tsunami exposure. However, historical catalogues spanning approximately 500 years of European occupation report only three tsunami observations affecting these islands. This study aims to investigate this apparent discrepancy by assessing tsunami hazard through numerical simulations of selected seismic rupture scenarios. We model local, regional, and far-field earthquake sources representative of the main tectonic contexts influencing the northern Lesser Antilles, and evaluate the resulting wave propagation and coastal amplification patterns around the Anguilla Bank. Our results indicate that, for the set of scenarios tested, the Anguilla Bank appears moderately impacted with wave amplitudes less than 1 m along its coasts. Bathymetric configuration and regional wave propagation patterns may partly explain this relative shielding. Nevertheless, the limited number of scenarios considered does not encompass the full range of possible tsunamigenic events. Alternative rupture geometries or source locations could produce higher wave amplitudes and potentially trigger local resonance effects. These findings contribute to a preliminary assessment of tsunami hazard in the Anguilla Bank Archipelago and highlight the need for broader scenario exploration and multi-hazard approaches in future studies.