Prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes in Ukraine: Regional Characteristics and Growth Trends Based on 2013–2022 Data

Background . Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the leading non-communicable pandemics. In Ukraine, officially registered prevalence remains lower than in most Central and Eastern European countries; however, substantial underdiagnosis may mask the true epidemiological situation. Aim . To assess the dynamics of T2DM prevalence in Ukraine and neighboring countries during 2013-2022 and identify regional patterns within Ukraine (2013-2017). Materials and methods . Open data from WHO, IHME (GBD), the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine were used. Age-standardized prevalence and incidence per 100,000 population were calculated, and correlation and regression analyses were performed. Results. In 2022, the age-standardized prevalence of T2DM in Ukraine was 4,449 per 100,000 (an increase of 24.2% since 2013), the lowest value among six Central and Eastern European countries: Ukraine, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Croatia, and Poland (with regional average of 34%). When adjusted for underdiagnosis, the true prevalence may reach ~7,400 per 100,000. During 2013–2017, the highest baseline prevalence was recorded in the Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, and Cherkasy regions, whereas the most rapid growth occurred in predominantly rural western regions (an inverse correlation with urbanization level, r = 0.49). Conclusions . The officially low prevalence of T2DM in Ukraine is largely an artefact of underdiagnosis. The fastest registered growth is observed in rural western regions, which is associated with improved case detection and population aging. The high dispensary coverage in the Ivano-Frankivsk region indicates effective organization of care; however, stable incidence and accumulation of chronic cases necessitate intensified primary prevention of obesity and early screening.