Scalable simulation of surface-code quantum error correction with coherent noise

Quantum error correction (QEC) is essential for scalable quantum computing, but its realistic evaluation is hindered by the difficulty of simulating coherent noise in large codes. We propose a unified framework for the rotated surface code that integrates a qubit-reduction strategy preserving error dynamics, a coherent noise model with spatial and temporal correlations, and an effective error model validated through simulations up to d=7. GPU-accelerated simulations using QULACS show that coherent errors in the d=5 code predominantly interfere destructively, reducing their effective impact by about 13%. Based on these results, we establish conditions for break-even QEC, requiring a gate-time-to-coherence-time ratio below 0.005–0.007. Our findings indicate that current superconducting platforms operate close to this regime, with residual coupling-induced coherent errors as the main limitation, and provide a practical tool for optimizing surface-code QEC.