European Marine Protected Areas are well-placed and climate-resilient, but weakly protected

Marine Protected Area (MPA) effectiveness depends on both coverage of species distributions and protection levels. It remains unclear whether Europe’s expanding MPA network adequately represents biodiversity now and as species redistribute under climate change. We provide the first pan-European assessment integrating MPA Guide protection levels with modelled present and future distributions for over 9,000 marine species. MPAs currently cover ~11 % of pan-European seas but encompass ~25% of species’ ranges, indicating preferential placement in biodiversity-rich areas. Representation remains stable under end-century projections (SSP2-4.5), and species at high climate risk generally retain or increase MPA coverage, suggesting protection of climatic refugia. However, < 1 % of species’ distributions fall within areas restricting harmful practices such as fishing. Europe’s MPA network is well placed for biodiversity conservation and climate resilience but weakly protected, limiting its conservation impact and highlighting the need to strengthen management and strategically expand effectively protected and climate-resilient areas.