Geospatial Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes Over Daura, Katsina State

This study examines land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Daura Local Government Area, Katsina State, over a twenty-year period from 2006 to 2026. Using Landsat satellite imagery (Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS, and Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS) with 30-meter spatial resolution, the research employed object-based supervised classification using Support Vector Machine (SVM-500) algorithm in ArcGIS Pro to identify and classify five major LULC classes: urban areas, vegetation cover, farmland, water bodies, and bare land. The study area covers approximately 21,731 hectares. Results reveal significant spatial transformations, with urban areas experiencing the most substantial growth, increasing from 581.16 hectares (2.67%) in 2006 to 1,477.87 hectares (6.80%) in 2026, representing a net increase of 154.37%. Vegetation cover also expanded from 732.68 hectares (3.37%) to 1,327.16 hectares (6.11%). Conversely, farmland declined from 18,606.8 hectares (85.62%) to 16,808.6 hectares (77.35%), losing approximately 1,798.2 hectares over the study period. Bare land showed fluctuating patterns, initially increasing from 1,620.75 hectares to 2,475.8 hectares between 2006 and 2016, then decreasing to 1,907.96 hectares by 2026. Water bodies remained relatively stable throughout the period. Accuracy assessment using 300 stratified random points yielded overall accuracies of 81.1%, 89.5%, and 96.2% for 2006, 2016, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding Kappa coefficients of 0.740, 0.723, and 0.89, indicating substantial agreement between classified images and ground truth data. These findings highlight rapid urbanization and its impact on agricultural lands in Daura, providing crucial insights for sustainable land management and urban planning in the region.