Climate Change, Economic Vulnerability and Unequal Adaptation in Rainfed Cereal Farming Systems in the Western Himalayas

Mountain regions are among the most climate-sensitive socio-ecological systems, yet adaptation outcomes within rainfed cereal farming remain uneven and insufficiently researched. This study examines how economic vulnerability mediates climate adaptation in the rainfed cereal systems of the Western Himalayas, focusing on the Jammu Division of Jammu & Kashmir, India. Primary data were collected in 2025 through a cross-sectional household survey of 408 farmers selected using a multi-stage disproportionate stratified random sampling design across temperate, intermediate, and subtropical agro-climatic zones. Economic vulnerability was operationalised across yield, input-cost, and income dimensions, and analysed using binary logistic regression to assess structural determinants and differential adaptation outcomes. The findings show that climate variability translates into differentiated livelihood outcomes through unequal access to land, education, institutional support, and livelihood diversification opportunities. Adaptation emerges not as a uniform technical adjustment but as a socially differentiated process embedded within structural inequality. A key contribution of the study is the identification of a cost–resilience paradox: stabilising production under climatic stress often requires higher input expenditure, which simultaneously increases financial exposure and income volatility for resource-constrained households. As a result, resource-endowed farmers are more likely to convert adaptation into yield and income stability, while marginal farmers remain locked in high-sensitivity production systems and coping practices. By providing region-specific empirical evidence from Jammu & Kashmir, which is an underrepresented area in Himalayan scholarship, the study demonstrates that resilience in mountain rainfed cereal systems depends less on technological adoption alone than on reducing underlying economic vulnerability and structural inequality.