Asymmetric and time-frequency effects of insecurity and macroeconomic dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s economic growth remains constrained by the nonlinear and evolving interplay between insecurity and macroeconomic instability. Using annual data from 1980–2020, this study employs a NARDL framework and wavelet coherence analysis to uncover asymmetric and time-frequency effects. Findings reveal a stable long-run relationship in which insecurity and inflation significantly hinder growth, while reductions in insecurity yield weaker gains. Exchange rate volatility further dampens performance, and capital formation offers only limited support. Wavelet results show persistent bidirectional causality between growth, insecurity, and inflation. The study concludes that sustainable growth in Nigeria depends on an integrated approach combining preventive security measures, macroeconomic stabilisation, capital formation, and governance reforms—recognising that security and economic policy are mutually reinforcing foundations of inclusive development. JEL codes: C22, D74, O47, O55