Adapting to climate change: The case of saline-tolerant rice varieties in coastal Bangladesh

Climate change-induced salinity intrusion increasingly threatens agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods in coastal South Asia. In Bangladesh’s deltaic agro-ecosystems, rising soil salinity has severely undermined rice cultivation, intensifying concerns over food security and farm incomes. Adoption of saline-tolerant rice varieties is a promising climate adaptation strategy aligned directly with SDG 13 (Climate Action), and indirectly with SDG 1 (No Poverty), and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), yet rigorous evidence on adoption drivers and welfare effects remains limited. Using farm-level survey data from coastal Bangladesh, this study examines the determinants of farmers’ adoption of saline-tolerant rice varieties and the causal impacts of adoption on rice yields and net farm income. Adoption decisions are analysed using a logistic regression model, and treatment effects are estimated via causal impact techniques like PSM, CEM and ESR. Results indicate that adoption increases rice yields by approximately 1--2 tonnes per hectare, corresponding to an average net income gain of about US \$100 per hectare. These findings highlight the substantial productivity and income benefits of saline-tolerant technologies in salinity-affected areas and their potential contributions to climate resilience (SDG 13), food security (SDG 2), and poverty reduction (SDG 1), while supporting more sustainable agricultural practices. The study underscores the need for targeted policy interventions—especially improved seed dissemination, farmer awareness, and institutional support—to scale adoption and strengthen the resilience of coastal farming systems under climate change.