Domestic Roots of Filipino Perceptions of China: Elite Cue Decay and Realignment Across Political Periods

This study examines the domestic roots of Filipino perceptions of China by analyzing how elite foreign policy cues, media framing, and leadership transition condition public opinion across political periods. Drawing on two nationally distributed public opinion surveys conducted in the Philippines in 2022 and 2024, which were cleaned, harmonized, and pooled for cross-period comparison, the analysis reveals a dynamic interplay of factors. Using descriptive statistics, pooled regression models, interaction analyses, and robustness checks, the study finds that incumbent elite cues, media narratives, and perceptions of China’s political influence are consistently associated with Filipino attitudes toward China. In contrast, cues associated with former leadership exhibit diminished explanatory power over time, indicating elite cue decay. Qualitative thematic analysis further shows that respondents interpret China through elite leadership signals, media discourse, and sovereignty-related concerns. By distinguishing between elite cue decay and elite cue realignment, this study advances a dynamic understanding of foreign policy opinion formation in middle-power democracies.