Spatial Dynamics, Regional Spillovers, and Club Convergence of Urban Development Potential: An Empirical Analysis Based on 289 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

Accurately identifying and scientifically measuring urban development potential is of critical importance for promoting coordinated regional development and high-quality growth. From the perspective of new-quality productive forces, this study aims to construct a productivity-oriented measurement framework to systematically assess urban development potential in China. An evaluation index system based on core productivity elements was established, and the development potential of 289 Chinese prefecture-level cities during 2013–2023 was measured using normalization and the entropy method. Kernel density estimation and the spatial Durbin model were employed to identify spatial distribution characteristics and spillover effects, while the Markov transition matrix and β-convergence model were applied to examine dynamic evolution and club convergence patterns. Urban development potential in China shows a steady upward trend with pronounced regional disparities, following a spatial pattern of “Eastern region > Central region ≈ Western region,” while the gap between the latter two regions gradually narrows. Significant spatial dependence is observed, characterized by high–high and low–low clustering. Technological innovation, human capital quality, education, and openness are the main determinants of inter-city differences, whereas ecological governance primarily affects neighboring cities through spatial spillover effects. The proposed evaluation framework and integrated spatial–dynamic analysis clarifies the mechanisms shaping urban development potential and provide empirical evidence for promoting coordinated regional development.