Research on the Impact of Digital Finance on the Resilience of Agricultural Economy: Measurement and Analysis Based on BO-XGBoost Model

Digital finance is a key enabler of agricultural economic resilience, helping alleviate resource constraints and advance the construction of a strong agricultural nation. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces for 2011–2022, this study builds a Bayesian-optimized XGBoost (BO-XGBoost) model to precisely identify the main determinants of agricultural economic resilience and their contributions. It employs SHAP to analyze their nonlinear effects and mechanisms of influence. We then examine the effects and transmission pathways of digital finance on agricultural economic resilience. Key findings are: (1) agricultural risk coverage, rural economic activity, and local fiscal expenditure on agriculture are the principal determinants of resilience; (2) these factors exhibit nonlinear threshold characteristics, specifically a “threshold-enhanced” effect for risk coverage, a diminishing marginal effect for rural economic activity, and a “cumulative strengthening” effect for fiscal support; (3) digital finance significantly promotes agricultural economic resilience, with rural industrial upgrading serving as an important mediating channel. This study provides empirical evidence and policy guidance to optimize digital-finance support and enhance agricultural resilience.