Forest disturbances intensify land surface warming across Europe

Forest disturbances are intensifying across Europe, yet their biophysical impacts on local surface climates remain poorly quantified. Combining Landsat-derived summer land surface temperature (LST) with a Europe-wide disturbance record, we assess how disturbance attributes (agent, size, and severity) and forest properties (forest type and leaf type) shape post-disturbance surface warming and its recovery over the past decade. Across Europe, disturbed forests exhibit systematically higher summer LST than adjacent undisturbed forests, with warming of 0.92°C relative to near edges (0–100m) and 1.70°C relative to outer edges (100–500m) following disturbance. Warming magnitude scales strongly with disturbance size, rising from 1.19°C in small patches to 2.29 °C in large disturbances. Forest properties further modulate these responses: needleleaf forests warm more strongly than broadleaf forests after disturbance (1.90°C versus 1.59°C), and plantation forests exhibit greater warming than natural forests (2.05°C versus 1.65°C). Scenario-based modelling indicates that reducing disturbance size can substantially mitigate post-disturbance warming (0.54°C), while shifting from needleleaf to broadleaf dominance provide limited cooling benefits in terms of reducing post-disturbance thermal anomalies (0.1°C). Analysis of recovery trajectories shows that more than 82% of disturbance-induced warming dissipates within ten years, with natural forests recovering more rapidly than plantation forests. Together, these findings identify key biophysical controls on disturbance-driven surface warming across Europe and highlight the capability of forest management strategies in limiting its magnitude.