Assessment of Water Supply Reliability and Future Demand in Ishaka Subcounty, Uganda

This study assesses the current reliability and future demand of the water supply system in Ishaka Subcounty, Uganda a rural-urban transition zone facing significant water security challenges. Using a mixed-methods approach, primary data were collected from 384 households and key informants through structured questionnaires and interviews, supplemented by secondary data from the National Water and Sewerage Corporation (NWSC). Descriptive and time-series analyses were employed to evaluate supply reliability, demand patterns, and institutional performance. Results indicate that 75% of households rely on NWSC piped water as their primary source, with 48.2% rating it as “very reliable.” However, intermittent supply, seasonal variability, and dependence on alternative sources such as boreholes (7.3%) and rainwater (7.0%) highlight persistent gaps in coverage and consistency. Infrastructure was perceived as efficient by 49.9% of respondents, though nearly half reported monthly service interruptions. Technological adoption for water management was widespread (83.9%), and community satisfaction with local water governance was high (88.5%). Time-series forecasting using an ARIMA (0,1,0) model revealed a steady annual increase in water demand, closely correlated with population growth. Projections indicate a continued rise in consumption from approximately 252.95 million litters in 2024 to an estimated 270 million litters by 2034. Household water use averaged 160.7 litres per day from the questionnaire, with domestic purposes accounting for 85% of total consumption. The study concludes that while the existing water supply system in Ishaka Subcounty is relatively reliable and well-regarded, rising demand driven by population growth and urbanization will likely strain current infrastructure. Strategic investments in network expansion, leak reduction, integrated water resource management, and enhanced policy implementation are recommended to ensure sustainable and equitable water access in the future.