Societal vulnerability amplifies the severity of global groundwater risk and creates latent hotspots

Groundwater stress, despite its growing global significance, is typically evaluated using hydroclimatic indicators that overlook societal vulnerability. Here we present the first global groundwater risk framework that conceptualizes groundwater stress as a hazard, integrated with exposure and a groundwater-specific societal vulnerability index capturing socio-economic resilience, infrastructure and resource availability, and governance. Applied globally at 0.1° resolution for 2001–2020, it shows that 68% of the global population and 48% of groundwater-dependent cropland are located in risk hotspots. Groundwater stress and exposure primarily drive hotspot emergence, particularly in regions such as the Mediterranean and North Central America, whereas vulnerability modulates risk severity. High vulnerability amplifies risk in South and Western Central Asia and reveals latent hotspots in parts of Africa and South America despite lower stress. By incorporating vulnerability, the framework identifies regions where proactive governance and adaptation can most effectively mitigate groundwater risk under rising water demand and climate change.