Tropical peatlands carbon stocks’ vulnerability to climate change: A rapid evidence assessment

Tropical peatlands store large carbon stocks and play a critical role in the global carbon cycle. Yet, their vulnerability to carbon loss under climate change remains unevenly understood. Here, we address the question of which types of tropical peatlands are most vulnerable to carbon stock loss under climate-related stressors by synthesising the existing evidence base through a Rapid Evidence Assessment of 117 peer-reviewed studies published between 2004 and 2025. Studies were systematically coded for region, land-cover types, topographic setting, and reported climate and anthropogenic stressors, allowing a quantitative assessment of how peatland vulnerability has been examined across tropical contexts. The evidence base is geographically and topographically uneven, with a strong concentration of studies in Southeast Asia and lowland peatlands, and substantially fewer studies addressing peatlands in Africa and South America and in montane areas. Across regions, precipitation and drought were the most frequently examined stressors, although their relative emphasis varied when normalised by regional study coverage. Temperature-related stressors were proportionally more prominent in studies from South and Central America and in montane peatlands, whereas precipitation-related stressors were similarly represented across lowland and montane systems. Fire-related stressors were predominantly assessed in Southeast Asia, with limited representation in South and Central America. Sea-level rise and peat subsidence were reported in only a small subset of studies and mostly conducted in Southeast Asia. Land-use change, deforestation, and drainage were primarily examined in Southeast Asia, while livestock-related stressors were concentrated in studies from South and Central America and in montane peatlands. Overall, the distribution of stressors across regions, land-cover types, and topographic settings reveals substantial knowledge gaps that constrain robust assessments of tropical peatland carbon vulnerability, particularly in South America, Central America, and Africa, and in montane peatland systems. Evidence related to sea-level rise and peat subsidence remains especially limited, highlighting the need for greater empirical coverage of these stressors. The combined evidence suggests that degraded, converted, and, especially, drained tropical peatlands are most vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change across the regions and geographical settings. By identifying where evidence is concentrated and where it is lacking, this synthesis also provides a transparent foundation for prioritising future research and strengthening the scientific basis for climate and land-use policies aimed at safeguarding tropical peatland carbon stocks.