Seven Years Without Recovery:U.S.-China Trade Under Section 301 Tariffs

This paper investigates the persistence of U.S.-China trade disruption following Section 301 tariff implementation in July 2018. Using a difference-in-differences framework on monthly import data for 178 intermediate goods across 14 trading partners through October 2025, we document the longest post-tariff observation window in this literature. Our analysis reveals that Chinese imports declined approximately 58 percent relative to control countries with no sustained recovery over 88 months. The import gap widened rather than narrowed: event study coefficients increase from − 0.45 at 1–6 months to -1.52 at 73 + months post-tariff. Trade diverted substantially to Vietnam (+ 891%), Thailand (+ 161%), and other alternative suppliers. Our key contribution is this temporal documentation: seven years of persistently depressed bilateral trade suggests permanent supply chain restructuring rather than temporary adjustment. This finding underscores the long-run consequences of trade policy uncertainty for global sourcing decisions. JEL Classification: F13, F14, F23, F51