The Dynamic Trajectory and Influencing Factors of Elderly Consumption Levels in China under the RPB Framework: An Analysis Based on the MIMIC Model

Against the backdrop of profound population ageing in China, fully unlocking the consumption potential of the elderly has become a pivotal driver for fostering new economic growth. Drawing upon Life-Cycle Theory, this study constructs a “Risk-Preference-Budget” (RPB) analytical framework. Employing multi-indicator multiple-causes (MIMIC) methodology, it conducts empirical testing using seven waves of unbalanced panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) spanning 2010-2022. The findings reveal: Firstly, consumption levels among the elderly in China exhibit a three-stage trajectory with advancing age. Secondly, among the core factors encompassed by the RPB framework, all except gender and marital status significantly influence elderly consumption. The three elements exert “inhibitory,” “guiding,” and “driving” forces respectively throughout this process. Finally, the determinants of elderly consumption exhibit pronounced gender differences. Consequently, this study provides phased, multi-factor, and differentiated policy implications for precisely unlocking the potential of the silver economy.