Does affective polarization make citizens more extreme? Experimental evidence from Chile

We study how affective polarization shapes ideological stances in a context of weak partisan identities: the 2022 Constitutional Plebiscite in Chile. We show that the plebiscite produced opinion-based identities with high levels of affective polarization and motivated reasoning, exemplified by a strong cue-taking effect. Using a survey experiment with an open-ended primer, we experimentally manipulate affective polarization. We do not find that heightened affective polarization directly influences ideological extremeness. However, a second experiment provides mixed evidence of an indirect impact on ideology via strengthening the effects of cues. Thus, while affective polarization does not polarize ideology in the abstract, it may shape ideological positions due to affective responses to the speaker’s political camp. Our results suggest that even opinion-based groups based on new divides may shape how citizens interpret policy positions, raising concerns about the possibilities of democratic deliberation and agreement.