Causal Effects of Neighborhood Park Development on Urban Vibrancy Using Mobile Phone Location Data

In recent years, many metropolitan areas have faced declining opportunities for social interaction and reduced local vitality owing to changes in population structure and the uneven distribution of urban functions. Accordingly, the interest in the role of public spaces has increased, particularly in the creation of walkable urban environments. Urban parks have the potential to influence local vibrancy by encouraging everyday staying activities and pedestrian movement. However, their causal effects have not been sufficiently clarified. This study examined the impact of neighborhood park distribution on local vibrancy in station catchment areas within the Tokyo metropolitan region using statistical causal inference methods. Station-catchment areas are defined as walkable zones surrounding railway stations that reflect daily activities. Pedestrian flow, child population, and annual retail sales were used as the indicators. Propensity score methods were used to ensure comparability between the treatment and control groups. The results indicate that the presence of neighborhood parks has positive effects on pedestrian flow among workers and the child population, whereas no statistically significant effects are observed for annual retail sales or other indicators. These findings suggest that neighborhood parks may contribute to attracting households with children and promote walking among workers.