Beyond Networks: What Really Drives Entrepreneurial Confidence Among Ukrainian Refugees in the UK

The February 2022 escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war sparked Europe's largest forced migration crisis since World War II, displacing over 6 million Ukrainians. Understanding the factors influencing entrepreneurial confidence among this population is essential for designing effective economic integration policies and support programmes. While social capital theory has dominated migrant entrepreneurship research for four decades, its relevance in contexts of forced displacement—characterised by disrupted networks, incomplete institutional knowledge, and high uncertainty—remains theoretically and empirically contested. This study tests five competing hypotheses about entrepreneurial confidence among Ukrainian migrant entrepreneurs in the UK, drawing from social capital, cognitive-perceptual, prospect theory, and cultural embeddedness frameworks. Using cross-sectional survey data collected between March and September 2025 (N = 245–312 across hypotheses), we measured entrepreneurial confidence as a composite index across four dimensions: opportunity identification, resource acquisition, regulatory navigation, and customer base development. Our findings reveal that perceived environmental favourability is the strongest predictor of entrepreneurial confidence, with entrepreneurs reporting favourable perceptions exhibiting substantially higher confidence than those with unfavourable views. Cultural embeddedness demonstrates significant effects when strategically deployed: entrepreneurs view cultural connections as critical, reporting markedly higher confidence than those who perceive them as merely helpful. Risk perception is significantly negatively associated with confidence. Contrary to four decades of social capital scholarship, professional network strength shows no meaningful association with entrepreneurial confidence—a null finding that persisted despite sufficient statistical power. These results fundamentally challenge the dominance of social capital theory in migrant entrepreneurship research, suggesting that cognitive-perceptual and cultural factors may be more salient predictors of entrepreneurial confidence in forced-migration contexts than traditional network-based explanations.