A Neutrophil-Incorporated Nomogram for Predicting 3-Month Disability after Intravenous Thrombolysis in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background: The present study was designed to create and validate a novel, straightforward and dependable Nomogram for individualized prediction of short-term functional outcomes in AIS patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis. Methods: We enrolled patients who suffered from acute ischemic stroke (AIS) treated with intravenous thrombolysis based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The patients from Shaoxing People's Hospital constituted the training set, while those from Shanghai Fifth People's Hospital served as the validation set. The primary outcome measure was a 3-month unfavorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale 3–6). On the basis of LASSO logistic model, the predictive Nomogram was generated. The performance of the Nomogram was evaluated by ROC curves, Hosmer‑Lemeshow test and Calibration plot. Decision curve analysis was utilized to assess the effectiveness of the Nomogram. Results: The training cohort and validation cohort recruited 238 patients (median age 70 years; 61.3% male) and 155 patients (median age 62 years; 74.2% male) respectively. The results indicated that the AUC value of the Nomogram was 0.859 (95% CI: 0.811–0.906) in the training cohort and 0.848 (95% CI: 0.788–0.908) in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The nomogram’s reliance on routinely collected variables (e.g., NIHSS, glucose) facilitates rapid bedside use, potentially guiding post-thrombolysis monitoring for high-risk patients.