An Integrated Framework for Evaluating Sustainable Outcomes of Vocational College Graduates under Ethnic Heterogeneity and Unequal College-Level Resource Allocation

In ethnically diverse regions, sustainable employment and entrepreneurship outcomes for vocational college graduates are constrained by two structural challenges: (i) pronounced heterogeneity across ethnic groups in cultural background, social capital, and development pathways, and (ii) unequal allocation of college-level resources that widens disparities in capability development and opportunity access. Their interaction amplifies outcome heterogeneity and increases the complexity of sustainability-oriented evaluation. To address this, we propose an integrated assessment framework combining Dual-Dimension Enhanced Pattern Rule Recognition (D-DEPRR) and a Factor Contribution Measurement (FCM) model. The framework identifies weakly expressed yet high-contribution factors and quantifies their disturbance effects under heterogeneous ethnic and institutional contexts. Using survey data from 1,979 graduating students at a vocational college in an ethnic minority region of China, we benchmark the proposed approach against LSTM, BPNN, and SVM. Results show consistent improvements in ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, MCC, and Brier score, together with enhanced interpretability for key sustainability drivers. Findings indicate that intrinsic motivation and skill acquisition are core dimensions supporting sustainable outcomes. In addition, low-frequency support-related factors, including ethnically targeted guidance services and unequal access to institutional resources, exert disproportionately large impacts on minority student subgroups.