Resilience and Flexibility under Uncertainty in Space System Design

The increasing demand for space missions necessitates the development of space systems characterized by resilience, robustness, flexibility, and reliability. These qualities are critical during the conceptual design phase, especially given the substantial costs and extended timelines associated with designing, building, and launching space systems. Uncertainties, including evolving mission requirements and market fluctuations, can significantly impact schedule, mission performance and success, and lifecycle costs driving design changes, budget overruns, schedule extension, and the need for ongoing maintenance and upgrades. Incorporating these uncertainties into the design process is essential to effectively meet mission objectives. This paper will examine six existing frameworks and design architectures and propose a new framework that improves decision-making and fosters the development of resilient and flexible space systems under uncertainties. The proposed framework integrates key strengths of the examined frameworks while addressing their limitations. It enhances resilience and flexibility by defining clear system boundaries, incorporating probabilistic models for uncertainty, and facilitating multidisciplinary collaboration. Emphasizing robust uncertainty management and adaptive design updates, the framework ensures that designed systems can effectively respond to the complexities of space missions. The framework optimizes design configurations and allows for real-time adaptations based on new information. Its generalized approach makes it applicable to various space missions. The framework aims to improve space mission design process, enable continuous adaptability throughout the mission lifecycle, provides an effective integration of uncertainties into the design process, and contributes to the existing literature while promoting further research in the vital field of space system design.