Uncertainty Quantification in Aviation Climate Impact: A Stochastic Approach to CO2 and Non-CO2 Effects

The aviation industry significantly contributes to global climate change through both CO2 and non-CO2 effects. This study introduces a probabilistic framework that integrates flight mission, engine performance, emission, and simplified climate response models to quantify aviation's climate impact while accounting for uncertainties in emission and climate model parameters. In particular, uncertainties in emission indices and the contrail forcing factor are updated. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the framework provides probabilistic predictions of key climate metrics, offering insights into the sensitivity of predicted climate impacts to modeling uncertainties. A case study of a representative flight mission highlights the contributions of CO2, NOx, and contrails to aviation’s overall climate forcing, revealing that uncertainties in non-CO2 effects, particularly NOx emissions and contrails, dominate the total uncertainty. The findings emphasize the need for improved modeling of non-CO2 effects and demonstrate the framework’s utility in evaluating current and future propulsion systems. By advancing uncertainty quantification in aviation climate impact assessments, this study provides a robust tool to inform sustainable aviation technologies, flight optimization strategies, and evidence-based policymaking.