Artificial intelligence drives divergent emission futures

Artificial Intelligence (AI) may impact greenhouse gas emissions in both positive and negative ways, yet these impacts are not represented in recent assessments of climate change mitigation. Uncertainty surrounding future AI capability and adoption, its impacts on energy systems, and limited data availability complicates the inclusion of AI impacts. We conduct an expert-led process, ascertaining plausible impacts, and quantify ranges in their magnitude to 2040. We present a new scenario framework for AI and climate change that considers interactions between AI growth, climate policy, and AI policy. We translate elicited insights into illustrative scenarios and assess their implications using an integrated assessment model. Cumulative global CO2 emissions by 2040 range from +11% above to 1.4% below a baseline without AI impacts, depending on the scale of AI growth and policy intervention. Our results highlight emissions risks and opportunities from AI and the need for explicit representation in mitigation scenarios.