Planning for vascular surgeons. The importance of adjusting for full-time equivalents and using microdata. An application to Spain

Background: FTE indicator allows us to adjust the availability of professionals according to productivity, avoiding biases and making international or regional comparisons more homogeneous. Methods : The supply sub-model is based on system dynamics simulation (21) (22)(23), using the same methodology as that of the Ministry of Health for the planning of doctors in Spain. It has been adapted to the speciality of Angiology and Vascular Surgery (ACV).The projection horizon is 2035. An email survey was conducted among the 898 active members of the SEACV in 2022 to calculate headcounts and FTE. To project the need/demand for vascular surgeons, projections to 2035 were calculated using a retrospective observational population-based study 2006 to 2023 for Spain Projections to 2035 of vascular activity were made with trend analysis incorporating INE demographic projections Results: The results vary from an estimated supply in 2035 of 1,476 FTE surgeons to 1,169 if we consider heads. Therefore, given a demand, the estimates of deficits or surpluses vary considerably although the trends in evolution are similar. Currently, according to head count calculations, the market would be in balance, but the projected trend increase in clinical interventions by vascular surgeons would gradually lead the market to a deficit situation, which by 2035 would be 18%.When calculations are made with supply inputs in FTE, in the base year there would be a surplus of 26%, which would be reduced to a deficit of 18% by 2035. Conclusion: Human resources planning in the health sector still presents major challenges in terms of data and indicators, both on the demand side and on the supply side. Current methods, with their strengths and limitations, can be complex and do not always allow us to approximate reality. The effort to measure the indicator locally is useful and valuable for planning.