Inertial Integration and Structural Rupture: Quantifying Geoeconomic Fragmentation, 2010–2024

Does the return of geopolitical rivalry signal the end of the integrated global economic order? "Decoupling" and "friend-shoring" have dominated policy debates, but lacks clear evidence on whether the global trade network has actually fragmented along geopolitical lines. This study uses a longitudinal network analysis of bilateral trade flows from 2010 to 2024 to measure geoeconomic fragmentation. We test five hypotheses regarding strategic decoupling, connector stability, and network modularity. Our results reveal a complex "structural rupture": while the trade share between G7 and BRICS+ blocs has contracted by 21\% since 2010, the global trade network remains characterized by "inertial integration"—a state where the topological core remains unified despite declining bilateral ties. However, 2024 marks a significant regime shift; for the first time in fifteen years, community detection algorithms show that trade clusters are beginning to align significantly with geopolitical affiliations (ARI = 0.28, p < 0.01). These findings suggest that while the "flat world" has collapsed, the infrastructure of globalization is governed more by logistical path dependency than by transient political alignment, with 2024 signaling the potential "re-binarization" of the international economic order