Multivariate Climate Diagnostics and CMIP6 SSP245-Driven Future Pathways for Chhedagad Municipality, Jajarkot, Nepal (1984-2050)

Anticipating future hydro-meteorological risks under a warming climate requires an understanding of localized climate behavior in remote Himalayan municipalities. Using 40 years of satellite-derived observations (1984–2024) from NASA POWER and mid-century projections (2025–2050) from downscaled CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 data, this study offers the first thorough multivariate climate assessment for Chhedagad Municipality, Jajarkot. Historical analyses reveal a clear warming tendency across all 13 wards, strong elevation-dependent temperature gradients, and a post-2000 intensification of precipitation accompanied by heightened interannual variability. Humidity has increased steadily, while solar radiation and wind speeds show declining trends since the early 2000s, indicating shifts in atmospheric moisture, cloudiness, and circulation. A highly coherent climate system dominated by monsoon processes is revealed by multivariate correlation diagnostics. The amount of clouds has a significant influence on temperature and solar radiation, humidity is correlated with precipitation, and all variables show spatially uniform behavior across wards. Forecasts for the middle of the century show persistent variability in radiation and wind regimes, higher atmospheric moisture, sustained monsoonal enhancement, and ongoing warming. When taken as a whole, these findings show a shift toward a climate that is warmer, wetter, and more moisture-rich, with more hydro-climatic uncertainty and stronger seasonal contrasts. In addition to providing practical insights for climate-resilient planning in agriculture, water resources, energy, and hazard management, this study creates the first localized climate baseline for Chhedagad.