The Impact of Overconfidence and Environmental Conditions on Hazard Perception and Risk Assessment: An Experimental Study Using Video-Based Traffic Scenarios

Human decisions are accompanied by internal confidence judgments about the likelihood of being correct. These judgments are not always well-calibrated. Miscalibration occurs when there is a discrepancy between self-reported confidence regarding the correctness of performance and the objective performance. As a result, cognitive bias such as overconfidence can emerge, shaping how individuals perceive and behave. Traffic represents a distinctive decision environment, in which individuals have to constantly monitor and interpret changing perceptual information. Although overconfidence has been linked to unsafe driving, prior research conceptualizes confidence through self-report questionnaires and group-based analyses. Using performance-based measures, the present study aims to capture confidence as a continuous variable, investigating whether this bias can impact both the hazard perception performance and subjective experience of risk. Sixty-five participants completed a novel adaptation of the Hazard Perception Task (HPT), which integrated trial-by-trial confidence judgments and risk estimation of driving scenarios, alongside scores from the Hazard Perception Questionnaire (HPQ) and the Environmental Sensitivity (HSP scale). Results showed that overconfidence significantly reduced hazard perception accuracy, whereas reaction times to hazard and risk estimation were unaffected. Response accuracy declined also during nighttime in safe scenarios but remained high in hazardous trials. Subjective risk estimation was driven by the presence of hazards and lightning conditions. Environmental Sensitivity (HSP scale) showed a significant positive correlation with risk estimation. No relationship emerged between overconfidence and driving experience. Understanding how confidence judgments and individual differences operate in this high-risk context is therefore critical for safety.